TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for TS is 90% currently
the United States
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/