TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN
Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2006 9:00 GMT
Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 80% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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