TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 85% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 85% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 80% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 40% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/