TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 90% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for TS is 85% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/