5-Day Weather Foreacst Discussion August 31-September 4
630 PM EDT Wed. August 30, 2006

Short Term

A strong upper level trough over the Northwest will bring in a cool air mass into the Rockies. Moisture will be limited with the system however; any rainfall that does occur will be mainly due to upsloping. The possibility exists for scattered storms in the northern Plains Thursday afternoon. Ernesto is over south Florida and is forecast by the NHC to move into the western Atlantic and strengthen before making landfall into South Carolina. Elsewhere, in the East, a frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic will slow as Ernesto advances. This will tend to cause strong overrunning. Strong low-level moisture will converge along the boundary. With a moist air mass in place will cause very heavy rainfall across the mid-Atlantic.



Long Term



The pattern during this period will be dominated by a large closed low in the Gulf of Alaska and a ridge over the West. A complex pattern develops in the East.



Ernesto is forecast to take a northerly track and has the potential to spread flooding rain from the eastern Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic region Friday and into the Labor Day weekend. Severe flooding could occur as areas around the Chesapeake Bay. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible before the deluge of wet weather shifts north of the region on Sunday. This track is likely to cause the heaviest rain will remain west of New England. The rain should reach southern Pennsylvania on Friday, and then spread into central New York on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the West will cause temperatures to soar through the weekend.



James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx