Weather Discussion for July 11, 2006

SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE TUE AND WED...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER THIS WEEK BUT THE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 132W APPROACHING THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE DETAILS WITH THIS PACIFIC FRONT WILL GO WITH GFS TIMING AND STRENGTH. THERE ARE ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PARTS OF THIS FEATURE FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE MAIN DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS PUSH ONSHORE FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU WITH CONTINUING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LIKENS

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MID WEEK WITH CONTINUING SW FLOW ALOFT. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PUSHES NORTH FOR WARMING AND DRYING WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND MORE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.