5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion July 11
400 PM EDT Mon. July 10, 2006

Short Range

The pattern is forecast to change during this period as a strong Pacific jet pushes into the Northwest and will cause large height falls. This will lead to height rises across the northern tier. A trough is forecast to set up off the West coast and will cause an onshore flow ahead of it. Low-level moisture will likely cause rain across the Northwest late Tuesday and on Wednesday. An active split flow will carry a series of disturbances from the central Plains and acros the Northeast. A disturbance in the central Rockies is forecast to track to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The system will cause locally heavy rainfall that spread into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Low-level moisture converging along a boundary in the southern Plains will cause showers and storms into the Midwest. The disturbance will regenerate a frontal boundary and will push it eastward on Wednesday proving additional rainfall on Wednesday. Further south, a flat ridge will cover the South. The air mass over the Southeast will be favorable for showers and storms during each afternoon and evening.

Long Range

A trough will remain off the West coast with a broad ridge in the Plains this period. This will likely cause record warmth across the Plains and the Great Lakes. A cold front will push slowly through the Northwest with light rain. Further east across the West, conditions will remain mild. A ridge in the Plains is expected to strengthen resulting in warm and dry conditions across the Plains and into the Great Lakes. A cold front will push across the Northeast on Thursday with rain and possible thunderstorms. The front will sink through the mid-Atlantic region and then stalls. High pressure will build across the Northeast on Friday. Further south, the ridge over the Southeast will hold and will cause warm and humid conditions along with scattered afternoon storms.