EarthLogWX.Com

2007-11-06T21:21:00.002-08:00

2007-11-06T21:21:00.001-08:00

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

2006-08-31T08:38:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 90% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for TS is 85% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-31T08:37:00.000-07:00

MSNBC Breaking News: Hurricane watch issued for Carolinas as Ernesto strengthens.

Find out more at http://breakingnews.msnbc.com

2006-08-31T07:31:00.000-07:00

Heat - Spain

GLIDE CODE: HT-2006-08-31-7421-ESP
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 11:04:26 [UTC]
Area: Spain Sevilla and Andalusia Province, , ( MAP)

Description:

After several days of maximum temperatures above 40ºC, the province of Sevilla remains on level orange heat alert with little respite for the weekend ahead, except on Saturday, when temperatures are forecast to drop a couple of degrees. Similar conditions are forecast for the neighbouring provinces of Córdoba and Cádiz. Although dry, sunny weather is expected throughout the rest of the peninsular this weekend, the Health ministry has not put any other regions on alert and cancelled the one imposed on Castellón last Tuesday. To determine whether or not to issue a heat warning, the ministry uses four day forecasts provided by the National Meteorological Institute. An orange, or medium level, alert requires an increase in public health warnings and information and is issued when above-maximum temperatures are forecast for three or four days. A yellow, or low level alert, is issued when maximum temperatures are expected to be exceeded for one or two days, while a red,! or high level, alert is only used when the situation is forecast to continue for five days or more.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-31T07:30:00.001-07:00

Pakistan - Technological Disasters on 2006-08-31 at 04:14:34

Ref: AC-20060831-7413-PAK

RSOE HAVARIA Situation Update No. 1
On 2006-08-31 at 09:55:16 [UTC]

Event: Technological Disasters
Location: Pakistan Punjab Murree

Situation

A nine-storey building damaged in an earthquake in Pakistan last year collapsed on Thursday, trapping up to 15 people, police said. The building in the northern hill town of Murree had been a hotel before the Oct. 8 earthquake but had been turned into apartments. It collapsed at around 3 a.m. (2200 GMT) but police said they did not know why. "About 11 to 15 people are trapped inside the building," senior police official Sajid Kiyani told Reuters from the scene. Last year's earthquake killed about 73,000 people in northern Pakistan and destroyed and damaged buildings across the region.

Building regulations are weak and often not enforced in Pakistan and and many buildings damaged but still standing after the quake are being used.One of the trapped people had managed to make a phone call for help, police said. All of the people in the building were believed to be relatives of the owner, visiting the resort town for a wedding. Soldiers, police and rescue teams were at the site.

2006-08-31T07:30:00.000-07:00

Philippines - Explosion on 2006-05-11 at 05:14:39

Ref: EX-20060511-6047-PHL

RSOE HAVARIA Situation Update No. 2
On 2006-08-31 at 09:20:45 [UTC]

Event: Explosion
Location: Philippines Bataan province

Situation

An oil leak from a sunken tanker in the central Philippines has tapered off as efforts to clean up the country's worst oil spill continued, the coast guard chief said Thursday. Vice Admiral Arthur Gosingan said a Japanese salvage company conducting a physical examination of the ship that sank off Guimaras Island, 495 kilometres south of Manila, reported that it has not detected any leakage 'as of now.' The Okinawa-based company was using a remote-operated vehicle that surveys the ship with underwater cameras. 'In their last report, they have detected a crack on the starboard side, on the right side of the ship but they have not detected any leakage as of now,' he said.

'On the surface, we have seen sheen (of oil) only, that means that whatever comes out is very, very minimal,' he added. Gosingan, however, said that video transmissions from the bottom of the sea still showed that there were smudges of oil on the crack of the sunken MT Solar 1, indicating that there has been a leakage there. MT Solar 1 was carrying some 2 million litres of bunker fuel when it sank off Guimaras on August 11 after it was battered by strong winds and huge waves. Coast Guard officials have estimated that some 500,000 litres of bunker fuel have already spilled out of the sunken vessel and underscored the need to immediately remove the remaining oil from the ship to prevent further leakage.

Some 40,000 residents have been adversely affected by the oil slick. Local officials said many residents of Guimaras, most of whom are fishermen, have lost their livelihood due to the accident. The sludge has already affected 66 square kilometres of sea, 220 kilometres of coastline, 1,143 hectares of a national marine reserve and 454 hectares of mangroves, the government said. Several countries, including Germany, Japan, the United States, Australia and France, have heeded President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's appeal for help in containing the spill. The spill was the second in eight months. In December, a barge owned by the state-controlled National Power Corp spilled some 364,120 litres of bunker fuel at nearby Semirara Island. The Semirara spill, however, was confined to a cove which affected only 100 hectares of mangrove plantation.

2006-08-31T07:29:00.001-07:00

Forrest Fire -

GLIDE CODE: WF-2006-08-31-7424-
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 14:13:47 [UTC]
Area: Chongqing Province, Yubei District, Yakou ( MAP)

Description:

Some 4,000 people have been mobilized to fight a forest fire that is spreading rapidly through the drought-parched timberlands of southwest China's Chongqing municipality, a local forestry official said on Thursday. Soldiers, fire-fighters, armed police and local residents are fighting the blaze, which has already burned for more than 26 hours ravaging an area of 66 hectares, said the source with the municipal forest fire prevention office. The fire began at around 1:00 p.m. Wednesday in Yakou Village, in Yubei District, about 40 kilometers northeast of downtown Chongqing, and soon spread to neighboring Beibei District, the source said. Three 20-meter-wide firebreaks have been made to stop the blaze from spreading to residential areas, said the source. No casualties from the fire have been reported, according to the official. The worst drought in 50 years hit Chongqing and neighboring Sichuan Province this year, and has afflicted major areas of the two regions for the ! past three months. The cause of the fire is still unclear, but the prolonged drought plaguing the city has no doubt contributed to the fire's spread, said the source. The city has reported 97 forest fires since the beginning of August, burning an area of 600 hectares, according to the office. Temperatures of up to 42.4 degrees Celsius were recorded on Thursday, after a high of 43.4 degrees on Wednesday. The city reported a record high of 44.5 degrees Celsius on August 16. Chongqing has been hit by the worst drought since its meteorological records began in 1891. It began in mid-May in northeastern areas, and has plagued most of the municipality for up to 90 days. Temperatures are forecast to stay above 40 degrees Celsius on Friday, said the municipal meteorological observatory, which predicted that the blistering weather may end on Monday.

Damage level: Large

2006-08-31T07:29:00.000-07:00

Flood - South Africa

GLIDE CODE: FL-2006-08-31-7420-ZAF
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 09:16:06 [UTC]
Area: South Africa Southern Cape, , ( MAP)

Description:

The Southern Cape will finally be declared a disaster area. This announcement was made by Western Cape premier Ebrahim Rasool during a quick visit to the region after he and four of his ministers had determined the damage caused by floods that had devastated the area since August 1. Rasool initially refused to declare the region a disaster area. "Since the beginning of the month damage to the value of R473m had been done to the infrastructure. This will soon increase to more than R500m." The closure of the N2 in the Kaaimans Pass had a further economic impact on the region. Agriculture minister Cobus Dowry said farmers from the Klein Karoo in particular, who suffered a bad drought, two floods and a bird flu epidemic, would be glad about the financial aid.

Damage level: Catastrophic

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

2006-08-31T07:28:00.001-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2006 9:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 80% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-31T07:28:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm - Mexico

GLIDE CODE: TC-2006-08-31-7418-MEX
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 07:05:54 [UTC]
Area: Mexico , States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, Michoacan, ( MAP)

Description:

Hurricane John During the late afternoon of 29 August, Hurricane John rapidly developed from a Category 1 to a Category 3 hurricane, threatening communities along the Pacific coast of Mexico in the States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. Rainfall is reported to be heavy and there is a risk of landslides and flash floods, particularly in the mountainous areas of the Sierra Madre.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-31T07:27:00.002-07:00

Extreme Weather - USA

GLIDE CODE: ST-2006-08-31-7416-USA
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 05:36:19 [UTC]
Area: USA West Virginia, , Sissonville ( MAP)

Description:

Some areas of the town reported quarter-size hail. Several people we talked to said they had never seen anything quite like it. The hailstorm forced many drivers to pull to the side of the road and wait in their car. It seemed as if there was water everywhere. Many yards were under water and highways were flooded. We've had no reports of injuries from the Sissonville area, but we do expect some extensive damage reports over the next few days.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-31T07:27:00.001-07:00

Fire - Australia

GLIDE CODE: FR-2006-08-31-7415-AUS
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 05:34:11 [UTC]
Area: Australia Victoria State, , Melbourne ( MAP)

Description:

About 600 people were evacuated from a high-rise apartment block in inner-city Melbourne when a burning couch filled the building with smoke. Metropolitan Fire Brigade (MFB) crews were called to the Office of Housing flats in Neill Street, Carlton, just before 4am (AEST) today to find a discarded couch on fire on a first-floor landing. MFB Assistant Chief Fire Officer Peter Quinsee said it took firefighters quite some time to evacuate residents from the 18-storey building. "The decision was then taken to evacuate the floors above because of the heavy smoke-logging, and that process took quite some time to get probably some 600 people out of the building until it was all clear to return," he told Southern Cross Radio today. A Metropolitan Ambulance spokesman said five people were taken to hospital, two with smoke inhalation and the others with minor medical conditions associated with the evacuation. Forty firefighters took almost an hour to control the blaze, which dama! ged parts of the first floor. MFB fire investigators will examine the cause of the fire today.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-31T07:27:00.000-07:00

Flood - Indonesia

GLIDE CODE: FF-2006-08-31-7414-IDN
Date & Time: 2006-08-31 05:31:40 [UTC]
Area: Indonesia Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam Province, Aceh District, ( MAP)

Description:

Floods triggered by heavy rains swept through South Aceh district in Indonesia`s westernmost province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on Wednesday, forcing tens of people to take refuge to higher grounds. The floods inundated several parts of the road linking Tapaktuan to Meulaboh up to 100 cm deep, leading to congestion, the chief of traffic division at the South Aceh Police Resort, Adjunct Commissioner M. Zaki said. Many motorists slowed down their cars to avoid accident, he said. "Police have been deployed to Rot Teungoh village that is hit hardest by the flood since 06.00 a.m. on Wednesday to overcome traffic jam," he said.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-30T16:53:00.001-07:00

Tropical Weather Forecast Discussion
700 PM EDT Wed. August 30, 2006

At 500 PM EDT the center of Ernesto was located at latitude 27.6 north, longitude 80.8 west or 55 miles south southwest of Cape Canaveral, Florida. The storm is moving to the north at 14 mph. Winds are 35 mph. Central pressure is 1001 mb.

The system continues to move north along with intermittent convection. Satellite images show that the cloud pattern is still well organized. The system could re-strengthen as it moves into the open waters tonight. The system is expected to move into the Atlantic tonight and near the South Carolina coast during Thursday.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-30T16:53:00.000-07:00

Severe Weather Forecast Discussion August 31
645 PM EDT Wed. August 30, 2006

Moisture is forecast to increase ahead of a lee trough and cold fropnt in the Plains. Dew points will be near 60F with temperatures in the 80s may contribute to instability. Veering winds with height under a westerly high level flow may be sufficient for supercells.
Models forecast strong low-level shear across the eastern Carolinas through Thursday night. Deep moisture and lift along a boundary and forcing from Ernesto may cause widespread convection. Bands rotating around the system will push into coastal South and north Carolinas Friday night could produce a few tornadoes.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-30T16:52:00.000-07:00

5-Day Weather Foreacst Discussion August 31-September 4
630 PM EDT Wed. August 30, 2006

Short Term

A strong upper level trough over the Northwest will bring in a cool air mass into the Rockies. Moisture will be limited with the system however; any rainfall that does occur will be mainly due to upsloping. The possibility exists for scattered storms in the northern Plains Thursday afternoon. Ernesto is over south Florida and is forecast by the NHC to move into the western Atlantic and strengthen before making landfall into South Carolina. Elsewhere, in the East, a frontal boundary from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic will slow as Ernesto advances. This will tend to cause strong overrunning. Strong low-level moisture will converge along the boundary. With a moist air mass in place will cause very heavy rainfall across the mid-Atlantic.

Long Term

The pattern during this period will be dominated by a large closed low in the Gulf of Alaska and a ridge over the West. A complex pattern develops in the East.

Ernesto is forecast to take a northerly track and has the potential to spread flooding rain from the eastern Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic region Friday and into the Labor Day weekend. Severe flooding could occur as areas around the Chesapeake Bay. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible before the deluge of wet weather shifts north of the region on Sunday. This track is likely to cause the heaviest rain will remain west of New England. The rain should reach southern Pennsylvania on Friday, and then spread into central New York on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the West will cause temperatures to soar through the weekend.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

2006-08-30T15:11:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 85% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 85% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 80% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 40% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-30T07:33:00.001-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Philippines

GLIDE CODE: EP-2006-08-30-7409-PHL
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 12:38:13 [UTC]
Area: Philippines Samar, , Catbalogan ( MAP)

Description:

Suspected cases of typhoid fever at the Samar Provincial Hospital is manageable, said Dr. Rodulf Mabulay, Chief of Hospital in an interview, today August 30, 2006. An alarming report of 21 cases prompted some mediamen, PIA included, to seek the physician about the cases. Mabulay explained that, "It does not necessarily mean that the symptoms could mean typhoid fever." Symptoms experienced by patients like body malaise, fever and pains may also mean other diseases, the doctor clarified. Based on readings on the disease, typhoid fever is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacterium salmonella typhi. It is transmitted by food and water which has been contaminated with the typhoid victims as carrier. The bacteria which infect only man, enter the lymph stream through the intestines and pass into the blood, where they penetrate other organs. Anent to this, the doctor advised patients to be wary of street food bought because one may never know how safe they are. He add! ed that it is better to purchase food from sources known to have sanitary food preparation practices.

The suspected cases have yet to be confirmed following the outcome of laboratory results. The hospital has also dispatched some personnel from the Technical Services Division to investigate the area, where these patients come from, Mabulay assured the media. From data gathered from the ward, patients of the suspected disease come from Paranas, Hinabangan and Jiabong. One patient named Janine Angustia, 13 from Jiaan, Jiabong told PIA that she has been having fever for two weeks before she was brought to the hospital. Now that she has been treated for a few days, she said, she felt better though she is advised to stay for a few more days. When the doctor was asked about the two mortality (death) cases, Mabulay explained that the patients were brought to seek medical attention too late to be redeemed. He then said he would issue a health advisory to urge the public to seek medical attention early on, so that he said complications will be avoided. When complications set in, it c! ould cause death, he said. He advised the public, that on the onset of fever, seek medical intervention and not to do self treatment. It might be dangerous, he made it clear. The Samar Provincial Hospital is ready to give medical services, the doctor assured.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-30T07:33:00.000-07:00

- Fire - India

GLIDE CODE: FR-2006-08-30-7408-IND
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 12:03:25 [UTC]
Area: India Delhi, Okhla industrial area, Okhla ( MAP)

Description:

At least five firefighters were on Wednesday injured while putting out a blaze at a foam factory in Okhla industrial area of south Delhi. The medium-range fire broke out at the factory in Okhla phase-I shortly after 9 am, fire officials said adding as many as 30 fire tenders were immediately rushed to the spot. During the operation, the three-storeyed structure collapsed due to which some fire brigade personnel sustained minor injuries, Chief Fire Officer RC Sharma said. He said there were no reports of anybody being trapped inside so far. The cause of the fire was not immediately known. In another incident, a building collapsed in Laxmi Nagar in East Delhi area, fire department officials said. The department were informed of the incident at 12.30 pm and four fire-tenders were rushed to the spot, the officials said.

Number of Injured persons: 5 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-30T07:32:00.001-07:00

Biological Hazard - Vietnam

GLIDE CODE: BH-2006-08-30-7407-VNM
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 12:00:55 [UTC]
Area: Vietnam , , Hanoi ( MAP)

Description:

Vietnam has said the H5 strain of bird flu virus had been detected in a flock of ducks in a Hanoi suburb, raising fears of a resurgence of the deadly H5N1 virus in the communist country. On Monday, "two ducks sold in Tan Trieu market, Thanh Tri district, tested positive" to the H5 strain, said Nguyen Van Cam, director of the National Center for Animal Health Diagnosis in Hanoi. Five ducks were tested, all of them in good health. The N component of the virus has yet to be identified but the H5N1 virus that has killed 42 people in Vietnam since late 2003 is now considered endemic in the country. The official said prevention measures would be stepped up in the capital to avoid the virus spreading and curtail further human infections.

"We will take every month a hundred samples of poultry sold in Hanoi markets to carry out tests. We have already reinforced controls." The trade of live poultry in Hanoi inner district is theorically forbidden but the ban is poorly enforced. "This discovery shows that the virus is still circulating among poultry, especially waterfowl," said Hoang Van Nam, deputy head of the agriculture ministry's Animal Health Department, calling for higher vigilance. The geographic origins of the ducks could not be established, he said, adding a disinfection campaign would be carried out around Hanoi in September. Vietnam said Saturday the H5N1 strain of bird flu had been detected in a flock of ducks in the southern Mekong Delta. Ducks and other waterfowl can carry and spread the virus without showing symptoms themselves. The Southeast Asian country is the worst hit by the disease after Indonesia, but it has reported no new human cases this year. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung last week urg! ed local authorities to increase their vigilance and be on the lookout for illegal poultry imports from virus-hit neighbouring countries.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-30T07:32:00.000-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Indonesia

GLIDE CODE: EP-2006-08-30-7406-IDN
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 09:34:34 [UTC]
Area: Indonesia West Java, Jakarta Raya, Jakarta ( MAP)

Description:

Two more people from a bird flu-hit area in Indonesia's West Java have been admitted to hospital on suspicion of contracting avian influenza, health officials said. The first patient, 17-year-old Asep Ridwan, was taken on Tuesday to hospital in Garut, West Java, from the hamlet of Ranca Salak in the subdistrict of Cikelet where three people have already been infected by bird flu, said Iman Firmanullah. Birds in Ranca Salak tested positive of the H5N1 strain of the disease but no information was obtained whether Ridwan had been in contact with them, said Firmanullah, who heads the contagious disease section at Garut's health office. The Garut general hospital overnight received a 39-year-old man from the nearby hamlet of Cigadog who showed symptoms of bird flu, said Firmanullah. Three other people from Cikelet are also suspected of having been killed by the disease. The district animal husbandry office has culled a total of 4,697 birds, including chicken, ducks, geese a! nd doves in the six villages in Cikelet in the past days, said Dida Kardiana, an official from the office in Garut. He said his office was awaiting for further instructions from the central government before carrying out more culling in Cikelet. Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, has 60 confirmed cases of infection so far, 46 of them fatal, the highest number in the world. While the H5N1 virus that causes bird flu does not spread easily among people, the chance of a mutation occurring which will allow it to do so is heightened as more humans catch it from infected birds. Scientists fear that if this occurs, a global flu pandemic with a massive death toll could result.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-30T07:31:00.002-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - China

GLIDE CODE: EP-2006-08-30-7405-CHN
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 09:22:14 [UTC]
Area: China Hong Kong S.A.R., , Hong Kong ( MAP)

Description:

A 23-year-old British man visiting Hong Kong was hospitalised in a critical condition with a suspected case of the human variation of mad cow disease, hospital officials said on Wednesday. The patient, who was not identified, sought medical treatment in Hong Kong on April 6, when he appeared mentally deranged and showed other psychiatric symptoms, Hong Kong's hospital authority said in a statement. He has since received intestinal surgery and is now critically ill, the statement said. Tests were inconclusive but doctors suspect the patient has contracted variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease - believed to be contracted by eating animals infected with mad cow disease - based on clinical symptoms, the authority said. The man is ethnic Chinese and was born in Britain, health department spokesperson Lee Ying-ming said. He lives in London and visited Hong Kong with his family on April 4, Lee said. The man was hospitalised two days later when he felt dizzy and "behaved oddly," L! ee said. Mad cow disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy, is a degenerative nerve disease in cattle. Eating contaminated meat products has been linked to the rare but fatal variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in more than 150 deaths. The outbreak, mostly in Britain, peaked in the 1990s. Hong Kong recorded a confirmed case of the human variation of mad cow disease in 2001.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-30T07:31:00.001-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Australia

GLIDE CODE: EP-2006-08-30-7404-AUS
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 09:11:54 [UTC]
Area: Australia New South Wales, , Lake Macquarie ( MAP)

Description:

Health authorities have ruled out meningococcal disease as the cause of death of a three-year-old New South Wales boy who died earlier this week. Ambulance crews were sent to the toddler's home at Lake Macquarie, north of Sydney, on Monday afternoon and found him in a critical condition. The child was taken to hospital but was pronounced dead on arrival. Meningococcal disease was suspected as the cause of death, but blood tests have ruled it out. The Northern Sydney Central Coast Area Health Service says further tests are now being done.

Number of Deads: 1 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-30T07:31:00.000-07:00

Haiti - Tropical Storm on 2006-08-29 at 20:25:21

Ref: TC-20060829-7398-HTI

RSOE HAVARIA Situation Update No. 1
On 2006-08-30 at 08:47:42 [UTC]

Event: Tropical Storm
Location: Haiti Sud Tiburon

Situation

Early morning Ernesto became a tropical storm, moving slowly to the East part of Cuba. However heavy rains have been hitting the coastal areas of the departments of Grand-Anse, L’Artibonite, and the Northwest of Haiti no major floods and damages have been reported. By 6:00 p.m. the tropical storm and flooding warning was discontinued.

National Response

The Risk and Disaster Management Committees are participating in joint assessment missions in each affected Department with MINUSTAH and humanitarian partners. Regular facts finding reports are being prepared at Department level and being disseminated to Government entities, MINUSTAH, UN Agencies and humanitarian organizations.

International Response

MINUSTAH continues supporting logistics and assessments in all Departments. OCHA, WFP, PAHO/WHO together with a member of the Risk and Disaster Nation System planned a helicopter flight to overview the damage of Ernesto. This was postponed due to very bad weather conditions. A second meeting of the International Community Supporting Group (ICSG) was held at 6:00 p.m. to share the first collected information on damages and casualties (See Annex 1).

Planned interventions

- To continue assessments at Department level.
- To continue consolidating information on damages and casualties to share with humanitarian partners and donors.
- To convene a new meeting of the ICSG if required.

2006-08-30T07:30:00.000-07:00

Nepal - Landslide on 2006-08-29 at 12:59:33

Ref: LS-20060829-7390-NPL

RSOE HAVARIA Situation Update No. 1
On 2006-08-30 at 08:48:54 [UTC]

Event: Landslide
Location: Nepal Mustang Districts

Situation

Report by United Nations - OCHA:

1. Heavy monsoon rains have caused floods and landslides in the mid and far western regions of Nepal. To date it is estimated that at least 13 districts have been affected, the worst hit being Banke, Bardya and Achham.

2. Available assessments from the District Government offices, the Nepali Red Cross Society (NRCS), OCHA field office and a number of NGOs active in the disaster areas indicate that over 47 persons have lost their lives, hundreds are still to be accounted for, over 5,000 persons have been successfully evacuated and temporarily resettled, tens of thousands are considered to be affected and a worrying unknown number of persons are thought to still be trapped in their houses or neighboring locations awaiting urgent assistance. Rain has not ceased rendering the critical search and rescue efforts carried out mainly by government institutions and the NRCS especially difficult. For instance 11 Village Development Councils (VDCs) in Rajapur area (Bardya) are still completely out of contact.

3. The information available from the different teams in the field is changing rapidly as the assessment capacity increases and access to remote locations is gained. The information available for the time being may not reflect the full scope of the disaster and the numbers of the affected population may well increase as the information from the remote VDCs reaches the district headquarters.

4. At the time of this reporting available assessments indicated that food items as well as safe water, mosquito nets and basic shelter material are a priority. The NRCS has requested around USD 7.1 million to finance their initial operation in Banke, Achham and Bardya.

5. Data on families in urgent need is still being collected but data available referred to Bardyia where 5,000 families, 6,700 families in Banke have been displaced and Achham with 800 persons affected. Although no specific needs have yet emerged, organizations active in the field recommended the set up of disease surveillance to track incidence of water borne disease to ensure response, if needed, will be timely.

6. Organisations agreed that it is to be expected that as the water levels start decreasing the displaced population will start returning to their homes when housing damage assessments will be required. Meanwhile the NRCS found that in the areas mostly affected by inundation, with the decrease of the water level food stock damages will emerge, forcing people to seek assistance elsewhere.

7. The need for refurbishment of emergency stocks was also highlighted in light of the persistent monsoon season that may continue causing flooding over the coming weeks.

National Response

8. To date the NRCS has been systematically responding to the emergency throughout the affected region. Search and rescue teams are working round the clock, facilitating the evacuations and helping those most in need with basic shelter items including blankets, water jugs, cooking utensils as well as food and cash.

9. Nepali Army Divisional Commands from both the Mid and Far Western Regions have also deployed their troops to access particularly isolated areas. Acchham was successfully reached today and the troops managed to rescue the population that had been caught between landslides. The injured were helped by a medical team accompanying the NA and food was distributed to the affected population.

10. Since yesterday the Home Minister has been visiting the disaster affected areas to assess the damage, identify the needs of the population and put in place a realistic response plan.

11. In Bardya a total of eight temporary camps have been spontaneously established for the displaced population. Similarly, in Banke a total of four such camps have already been set up.

12. The need to raise awareness on disaster management procedures and coordination among the donor and media community was vividly pointed out pointed out during the Kathmandu coordination meeting.

International Response

13. UNICEF Kathmandu has already sent to Nepalgunj two trucks with water purification materials, household utensils, blankets and tarpaulin sheets. These vital relief items will be distributed by the NRCS. In meantime, UNICEF is also preparing basic hygiene kits expected to be sent out early next week. RRN, a national NGO, has also dispatched a truck of similar non food items to the disaster area.

14. A number of I/NGOs including CARE, Oxfam, Save the Children US, IRC, Caritas, World Vision and ActionAid have in some cases pre-positioned relief items in the different districts and all of them have expressed readiness to support the operation based on needs.

15. UNDP, WFP and WHO have expressed their capacity to support the relief efforts as soon as the gaps are clearer.

16. As reported by WHO, the epidemiology and disease control division in Kathmandu maintains contact with the far west, mid west and western affected districts’ health officers and districts’ public health officers requesting they assess and report back on the potential emerging needs. No request for external assistance has been made yet.

17. In terms of the distribution and implementation of the relief efforts, all UN agencies and I/NGOS active in Nepal have agreed to channel all relief material through the NRCS.

18. An information sharing meeting with UN agencies, the Red Cross and key I/NGOs was organized by OCHA in both Kathmandu and Nepalgunj office. Following the Nepalgunj meeting, an inter-agency mission visited some of the most affected VDCs in Banke and Bardya districts including a temporary settlement in Banke where 300 persons are taking shelter.

2006-08-30T07:29:00.001-07:00

Epidemic - Sudan

GLIDE CODE: AP-2006-08-30-7403-SDN
Date & Time: 2006-08-30 09:04:52 [UTC]
Area: Sudan , North / South Darfur, ( MAP)

Description:

Cholera is rampant across Sudan, with nearly 25 000 cases and more than 700 deaths recorded this year, and the epidemic threatens neighbouring Chad, a top expert at the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Tuesday. Cholera has broken out in most states of Sudan, including North and South Darfur, but the toll does not include West Darfur where agencies have little access due to insecurity, said Claire-Lise Chaignat, WHO's global cholera coordinator. The water-borne disease could easily spread to Chad, where more than 200 000 Sudanese refugees from Darfur are staying in crowded camps near Abeche, she added. "It is a huge epidemic and the case fatality rate in southern Sudan is three percent, which is high," Chaignat told Reuters in an interview. Chad is only a step away and this bacteria doesn't respect borders. Cholera is an acute intestinal infection spread by contaminated water or food. It causes vomiting and acute diarrhoea that can lead to dehydration and death w! ithin 24 hours. The new WHO figures come on the heels of a warning on Monday by United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland who told the Security Council that Darfur was on the brink of a fresh humanitarian disaster threatening "massive loss of life". Tens of thousands of people have been killed and more than two million forced to find shelter in miserable camps during three years of fighting in Darfur. Mostly non-Arab rebels took up arms accusing the Khartoum government of marginalising the remote west. Sudan's health ministry has set up a task force with United Nations agencies, including WHO, to combat the epidemic through better hygiene. Most cases respond to oral rehydration salts.

Number of Deads: 700 persons
Damage level: Catastrophic

2006-08-30T07:29:00.000-07:00

India - Torrens Flood on 2006-08-22 at 14:23:22

Ref: FF-20060822-7284-IND

RSOE HAVARIA Situation Update No. 2
On 2006-08-30 at 14:15:47 [UTC]

Event: Torrens Flood
Location: India Orissa State

Situation

A flood alert was on Wednesday sounded in Orissa's coastal deltaic plains as the Mahanadi, the state's biggest river system, threatened to inundate large areas in at least seven districts. "We are expecting a massive sheet of water to flow down the river following heavy rainfall in the lower catchment region of the river," Special Relief Commissioner Jagadananada Panda told. Collectors of the districts threatened with inundation have been alerted and all measures are being taken to tackle the possible situation, he said.

While the Naraj delta head near Cuttack city was equipped to handle about ten lakh cusecs of water, authorities were apprehending that they would have to contend with about 11 lakh cusecs of water by Wednesday midnight, Panda said. People living in low-lying areas are being asked to shift to safer places. The districts being threatened are Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda and Nayagarh. As such, Jajpur district had already been hit by floods after the Brahmani and Baitarani rivers overtopped their embankments last week. The Mahanadi, downstream of the huge Hirakud dam near Sambalpur, is mainly fed by the Tel river, the catchment of which had experienced heavy rainfall during the last 24 hours.

2006-08-29T21:19:00.001-07:00

Forrest Fire - USA

GLIDE CODE: WF-20060830-7399-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.30 - 06:05:57
Area: USA California, , Redlands ( MAP)

Description:

A wildfire erupted quickly in the southern San Bernardino National Forest on Tuesday, burning a home and prompting the evacuation of a tiny mountain community. It was one of several fires to have started in Southern California this week as hot weather dried out brush and increased fire danger. The fire started about 3 p.m. and burned about 2,000 acres by dusk, authorities said. The cause was under investigation. The blaze was about 5 percent contained. The community of Mountain Home Village was under a mandatory evacuation order, and nearby Angelus Oaks was under a voluntary evacuation, said Robin Prince, a forest spokeswoman. One home and two outbuildings had burned. Mountain Home Village resident Kevin Bondy said a number of people were leaving. About 60 homes are in the area. "You can't see (the flames) from where we're at right now," Bondy said. "It's on the other side of the ridge, but I guess it's enough for them to evacuate us." Nearly 200 firefighters, along wi! th seven air tankers and three water-dropping helicopters, attacked the flames as they moved north into the forest about 60 miles east of Los Angeles. The fire was burning near the eastern edge of the Santa Ana River, about 14 miles from San Bernardino. In northern Los Angeles County, firefighters contained a 565-acre blaze near Santa Clarita. Residents of several closed streets were allowed to return home. Arson was suspected, authorities said. In Montana, residents of about a dozen homes were urged to evacuate after an afternoon windstorm fanned a fire that had burned about 18,000 acres and was 40 percent contained. It made a "pretty good run" Tuesday, information officer Pat Cross said. The fire was burning in national forests about 60 miles north of Yellowstone National Park. In Washington state, more favorable weather was helping firefighters battle a huge wilderness blaze. Firefighters were pulled from the lines Monday because of unsafe conditions in hot, windy weathe! r. The lightning-caused fire covers about 142,326 acres in the Pasayte n Wilderness in the north-central part of the state. There are 1,562 people battling the fire, and it is about 48 percent trailed, said Bud Nelson, a spokesman for the firefighting effort.

Damage level: Moderate

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-29T21:19:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for TS is 90% currently
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-29T18:17:00.000-07:00

Tropical Weather Forecast Discussion
745 PM EDT Tue. August 29, 2006

At 500 PM EDT the center of Ernesto was located at latitude 24.3 north, longitude 80.2 west or 105 mph south of Miami, Florida. The storm is moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Winds are 45 mph. Central pressure is 29.68 inches.
Ernesto has become better organized although overall appearance is a little ragged. The system as not strengthen and that could be due to easterly shear. Models are indicating that the system could reach hurricane force one it moves over the open waters and approaching the Southeast coast. The storm is forecast to move northward during the next 24 hours around the western extension of a ridge in the western Atlantic.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-29T18:16:00.000-07:00

5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion August 30-September 3
730 PM EDT Tue. August 29, 2006

Short Range

The pattern in the short range features a trough moving into the Northwest and a subtropical ridge over the Deep South slowly working east as Ernesto moves into south Florida.

Light rainfall is expected across the northern Rockies and the northern Plains through Thursday is association with a trough. Showers and storms are forecast from south Texas into Louisiana into Wednesday. A system in the middle Mississippi Valley is forecast to track slowly east into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The system will edge eastward slowly and stall as it runs into a ridge in the western Atlantic. Deep moisture will converge along and south of the front and fuel showers and thunderstorms from the central Gulf into the mid-Atlantic. Heavy rain and storms will be possible in the track of Ernesto through Thursday. The storm will then send tropical moisture northward into the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.

Long Range

A building ridge in the Rockies will cause temperatures to increase during weekend. The weather in the East will largely depend upon Ernesto. Models take the system north through the mid-Atlantic then through the lakes by day five. After Ernesto passage, a thermal boundary will remain along the mid-Atlantic coast. Rough surf will batter the Carolina coast, and drenching rains will cause a concern for flooding across these states and into northeastern Georgia as the storm pumps in deep, tropical moisture. Ernesto may move past North Carolina and stall off the coast. However, if Ernesto takes more of a northerly track, then flooding may be a concern across the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast as the Labor Day weekend progresses. During the holiday weekend, temperatures will increase across the West.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-29T15:41:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 15% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Cuba
probability for TS is 65% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 40% currently
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours
Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOHN

2006-08-29T15:40:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Nicolas (16.4 N, 98.5 W)
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-29T11:09:00.000-07:00

Flood - USA

GLIDE CODE: FF-20060829-7396-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 19:40:19
Area: USA Iowa, , Bedford ( MAP)

Description:

Report by Carroll County Emergency Management Coordinator in Iowa:

This morning, Taylor County (county seat town is Bedford) reported massive flooding from overnight rains. Many gravel roads have been washed out and they will be seeking state and federal assistance.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-29T11:08:00.000-07:00

Drought - USA

GLIDE CODE: DR-20060829-7397-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 19:42:43
Area: USA Iowa State, Several counties in Iowa, ( MAP)

Description:

Report by Carroll County Emergency Management Coordinator in Iowa:

Several counties in Iowa have declared agricultural disasters after severe drought has affected the projected crop yield estimates. The Iowa governor has requested aid from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the counties affected most. Those counties are: Sioux, Plymouth, Woodbury, Monona, Harrison, Cherokee, Ida, Crawford, Montgomery, Sac, Dickinson, Clay, Humboldt, Webster, Adair, Madison, Worth, Cerro Gordo, Lucas, Monroe, Des Moines and Lee.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-29T07:10:00.002-07:00

Bird 'flu threat subsides, restrictions to be lifted
29.08.2006 15:18

All limitations pertaining to the bird 'flu epidemic will be lifted, Farming Minister József Gráf announced yesterday.

He expects that he can declare an end of bird flu in Hungary later this week, hirszerzo.hu writes. At a farmer's forum held in Pétervására on Monday, he said that no infections had been registered anywhere in the country for one month, which means all

2006-08-29T07:10:00.001-07:00

Tornado - United Kingdom

GLIDE CODE: TO-20060829-7394-GBR
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 14:54:56
Area: United Kingdom , Morfa Caravan Park, Aberystwyth ( MAP)

Description:

A mini-tornado is thought to have swept through a caravan park causing damage and smashing windows. It struck on Monday night lifting a boat off a trailer and tearing awnings at Morfa caravan park in Llanrhystud, near Aberystwyth. Holidaymaker Jason Jones, from Caerphilly, thought the roof of his caravan was "going to be ripped off". A weather specialist said he was confident a weak tornado was responsible as damage was "localised". Mr Jones, who was staying in a caravan with his wife and two children, said the strong winds blazed a path about 40ft wide at about 2230 BST on Monday. He said: "It started raining heavily and then there was a rumbling sound that I'd never heard before. "The caravan started shaking and the children were becoming quite scared so I told them to get into the back with their mother and get under a duvet. "It was so bad that I thought we were either going to take off or the roof was going to be ripped off." Mr Jones said the strong winds only la! sted a "few seconds", but "wreaked havoc". John Mason of Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) visited the scene on Tuesday. After speaking to the site owner and holidaymakers he said he was confident a weak tornado was responsible. He said gusts would have reached about 70 or 80mph. Morfa caravan park owner Enid Jones said the strong winds lifted a boat off a trailer and hurled it into a caravan awning. She said that some caravan windows were also broken.

Damage level: Moderate

[hinghamwx] All eyes on Ernesto

2006-08-29T07:10:00.000-07:00

South
Tropical Storm Ernesto weakened considerably over Cuba Tuesday but is emerging again over warmer waters this morning and heading toward southern Florida. Look for increasing showers and some wind in the area by late today. Elsewhere, most of the southern U S will see will see scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Look for high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. Parts of southern Texas will see cooler 70s with showers while areas near the lower Rio Grande Valley may see highs around 100 degrees.

Northeast
Rain and flooding problems will plague parts of the Northeast today. The ground is already saturated in many areas and any more rain could produce flooding. Parts of southern New York, northern and eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern Connecticut are under flood watches. Rain may put a damper on tennis at the U. S. Open in Flushing, NY. High temperatures should range from the 60s in northern Maine to the 90s in much of eastern Virginia. Most locales will see highs in the 70s.

West
The fire danger will remain extremely high over the Great Basin, Montana and Wyoming today ahead of a Pacific cold front. Despite the front, most of the region will see little or no rain. To the south, scattered thunderstorms are possible over parts of southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. Temperatures will be above average in the areas of high wildfire danger, but below in western Washington and western Oregon. Look for highs from the 60s in parts of the southern Rockies, western Washington, northwest Oregon and the Pacific beaches north of Monterey to over 110 in the lower Colorado River Valley. Much of eastern Montana and the southern Great Basin will be hot with highs in the 90s.

Midwest
After a bout of rain and strong thunderstorms, weather conditions across the Midwest will improve today. Temperatures will be a touch on the cool side, as well. Highs are expected to range from the 60s in the U.P of Michigan to the 80s in parts of Missouri and the Plains. Most locations will enjoy highs in the 70s.

__._,_.___

2006-08-29T07:09:00.001-07:00

Extreme Weather - Denmark

GLIDE CODE: ST-20060829-7392-DNK
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 13:47:46
Area: Denmark Ringkobing, , Holstebro ( MAP)

Description:

A 17-year-old Danish footballer was killed by lightening after a match on Saturday near Holstebro in western Denmark, said a report reaching here on Monday. The seriously burned victim was rushed to the hospital on Saturday where he later died of his injuries. Ten other players who were also struck by lightening during the local cup match between Ulfborg and Maabjerg, were later able to leave hospital, according to national Danish television channel TV2.

Number of Deads: 1 persons
Number of Injured persons: 10 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-29T07:09:00.000-07:00

Extreme Weather - Nepal

GLIDE CODE: ST-20060829-7391-NPL
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 13:03:47
Area: Nepal , , Salyan ( MAP)

Description:

Lightening on Monday killed two members of the same family at Lekhpokhara VDC, Pakhopani of Salyan. The dead have been identified as Kusum Gharti and his one year-old son, Mausam Gharti. The deceased had been renting a shop at the home of a local, Nanda Ram KC. According to sources, the lightening also set ablaze properties belonging to landlord KC and neighbour Dilli Bahadur Gharti.

Number of Deads: 2 persons
Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-29T07:08:00.002-07:00

Landslide - Nepal

GLIDE CODE: LS-20060829-7390-NPL
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 12:59:33
Area: Nepal Mustang Districts, , ( MAP)

Description:

Nine members of a road construction crew, including a child died Monday night in a landslide at Ghaiko in Lete VDC, Ward no 4, Mustang district. The construction crew for the Jomsom-Beni road died on the spot after being crushed under boulders that landed on their make-shift tent from the precipice above them. According to sources, most of the deceased are labourers from the Rukum-Rolpa region. Meanwhile, a team of army men from the nearby barracks have managed to recover three bodies from the debris. According to the security officials at the scene, the remaining bodies could be extracted only after clearing the debris with explosives.

Number of Deads: 9 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-29T07:08:00.001-07:00

13 plague cases reported in 4 states, highest in 12 years
29.08.2006 12:29

Thirteen cases of plague including two deaths have been reported in the Western United States this year, the highest number of cases in 12 years, health officials say. Seven cases were reported in New Mexico, three in Colorado, two in California and one in Texas, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Two New Mexicans died -- a 54-year-old woman who grew ill in May and a 43-year-old woman who became sick in July. On average, the plague is diagnosed in about seven people a year, CDC officials said Friday. Fourteen cases were reported in 1994. It's treatable with antibiotics, but health officials stress the importance of prompt diagnosis to reduce the fatality rate. Plague is transmitted through the bites of infected fleas, but people also can get it by direct contact with infected rodents, wildlife and pets. Most people become ill one to six days after being infected. The increase probably stems from human encroachment into areas where infected rodents live, said Hannah Gould, a CDC epidemiologist who investigated some of the cases.

Plague takes three forms -- bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. A common symptom of bubonic plague is painful swollen lymph nodes in the groin, armpit or neck. Other symptoms include fever, chills, and sometimes headache, vomiting, and diarrhea. Septicemic plague can involve fever, chills, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and abdominal pain. Eight of the cases this year were bubonic and the other five were septicemic. Most cases usually occur in May through September, Gould said.

2006-08-29T07:08:00.000-07:00

Flood - Bangladesh

GLIDE CODE: FL-20060829-7387-BGD
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 12:10:19
Area: Bangladesh , Jessore, Khulna, Satkhira Districts, ( MAP)

Description:

Floods have adversely affected several parts of three districts (Jessore, Khulna and Satkhira) in south-western Bangladesh. The situation, which started during the first week of August, has worsened after heavy rainfall in these areas. The main causes of flooding are water logging due river sedimentation, excessive rainfall and improper building of dams for fish and shrimp cultivation.

Damage level: Large

2006-08-29T07:07:00.000-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Cote d'Ivoire

GLIDE CODE: EP-20060829-7386-CIV
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 11:19:12
Area: Cote d'Ivoire , , Abidjan ( MAP)

Description:

A string of cholera outbreaks have spread through Cote d'Ivoire this year, with the most recent hitting the country's economic capital, Abidjan, and leading the minister of health to declare an epidemic. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that statistics provided by Medecins Sans Frontieres/Holland showed that there have been 321 cases of cholera in the western part of the country since the beginning of the year, including two deaths. Added to this are 40 reported cases and four deaths in Abidjan, in the south of the country, since the beginning of July. Cholera is an acute intestinal infection that causes severe dehydration from diarrhoea and vomiting and is highly contagious. It is most commonly contracted from infected food or water; poor sanitation contributes to the spread of the disease. Epidemics typically occur in Cote d'Ivoire during the rainy season, from July to September. The first case of the season in Ab! idjan occurred in early July when a fisherman returned from sea, vomiting and suffering from a severe case of diarrhoea. He did not receive medical attention and died. Tests later confirmed that he had cholera.

Since then, 26 more people were reported infected in the impoverished neighbourhood of Port-Bouet in the south of the city, where another person died. Within less than two months, the disease has spread to three other neighbourhoods, with 14 new cases being reported and two more deaths in August. "The situation in Port-Bouet was under control and no other cases had been reported 20 days after the first case. But then new cases were discovered in a nearby neighbourhood," Dr. Jean-Baptiste Brindou, health director for the district of south Abidjan, told the daily newspaper Soir-Info. He added that since then, cases have also cropped in Abobo and Yopougon, two of the most densely populated neighbourhoods in Abidjan. "We provided warnings to the residents of Port-Bouet, but we can't quarantine people. Their movements within the city could definitely have had an impact on the spread of the epidemic. Since this is a disease that comes from 'dirty hands' everything could have start! ed from there," he said. In response, the government has created local health committees in affected areas to help control the spread of the disease. Public service announcements have also aired repeatedly on state-run media, calling on people to observe standard rules of hygiene. The messages remind people to only drink water from reliable sources and avoid water sold in little plastic bags, to disinfect raw fruits and vegetables, to properly cook food, and be vigilant about washing hands after using the washroom and before eating.

Number of Deads: 6 persons
Damage level: Heavy

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JOHN

2006-08-29T07:06:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
San Nicolas (16.4 N, 98.5 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-28T21:07:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for TS is 90% currently
the United States
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JOHN

2006-08-28T21:06:00.001-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
San Nicolas (16.4 N, 98.5 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-28T21:06:00.000-07:00

Tornado - USA

GLIDE CODE: TO-20060829-7381-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.29 - 05:45:47
Area: USA Minnesota, Nicollet / Le Sueur County, Minneapolis ( MAP)

Description:

The National Weather Service has confirmed that the tornado that roared through Nicollet and Le Sueur counties last Thursday night was an F3. After viewing some of the damage just southwest of St Peter on Sunday, the National Weather Service brought in a national expert on Monday to verify the strength of the Tornado and they concurred that the twister that hit Nicollet and Le Sueur was an F3. They also said the long track tornado was on the ground for 30 miles, from three miles west of Nicollet through the city of Nicollet then to the southern outskirts of St Peter and across the northern part of Kasota to Lake Emily before finally dissipating five miles northwest of Waterville. In the beginning, the tornado was no more than a few dozen feet wide, but it eventually grew to one half mile wide. The tornado was distinctly multiple vortex. It is still uncertain how many tornadoes developed across southern Minnesota on Thursday. There are numerous credible reports of one o! r maybe two tornadoes southwest of Courtland. There were also some reports of touchdowns in extreme eastern Le Sueur County into Rice County and in areas outside Kilkenny, Waterville and Morristown. These areas are also being researched and National Weather Service investigators will be looking at video, spotter reports, 911 logs and other data.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-28T16:18:00.000-07:00

5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion August 29-September 2
700 PM EDT Mon. August 28, 2006

Short Term

The Plains and much of the West will be dry. It will be cooler in the Pacific Northwest.Thunderstorms will soak parts of Central and South Texas as well as eastern New Mexico. The outer effects of Ernesto are forecast to impact south Florida tomorrow, especially the Keys, with squalls of rain and thunderstorms along with rough surf affecting the area. A storm system will allow for another wet and dreary day in the mid-Atlantic with heavy downpours in some areas. A cold front extending from Ohio to Louisiana will set off showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be locally strong with gusty winds. A second cold front across the Upper Great Lakes will send a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the Upper Midwest.

Long Term

High pressure will cover the West and build into the Plains by Saturday. A fropnt will push through the central Rockies and the Plains Thursday and Friday. The forecast in the East will depend on Ernesto. The latest track as per the NHC takes the system up along the Southwest ands mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday. Models develop a ridge to the north that may inhibit it northward movement.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JOHN

2006-08-28T15:04:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-28T14:07:00.000-07:00

Torrens Flood - Greece

GLIDE CODE: FF-20060828-7380-GRC
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 19:37:47
Area: Greece , Halkidiki Peninsula, ( MAP)

Description:

A firefighter puts out the dying embers of a forest fire in Cassandra, northern Greece, yesterday. Anticipating rain, the fire service also began clearing burned trees from gullies as a flood-prevention measure.

UK & Ireland Summary Mon Aug 28

2006-08-28T14:06:00.000-07:00

WeatherOnline
Mon 28 Aug 17:49
Scattered showers
Rain into west Wednesday

Tuesday
Scattered showers are expected across Northern Ireland, western Scotland and Wales this morning, fine and dry through central and eastern areas with good sunny spells to start the day. Largely dry for Northern Ireland and south west England in the afternoon. Elsewhere there will be a good dea l of dry, bright weather along with a scattering of mainly light showers. Expect highs of 15 to 17C in the north and 18 to 20C in the south.

Tuesday Night
A fine, pleasant evening to come for the bulk of the United Kingdom, just a few showers to come across north west Scotland. Here showers will persist overnight. Elsewhere it's a dry n ight with clear spells and some patchy ground fog. A chilly night in low lying rural parts of the north with lows of 5 to 11C.

Wednesday
Showers are likely across the north of Scotland and later in the morning some rain may reach western parts of Northern Ireland. Remaining areas will be dry and mostly sunny. In the aft ernoon rain and drizzle gradually spreads east into western Scotland, Wales and western parts of England, staying fine further east. Dry in the evening across East Anglia and the south east, wet elsewhere with rain and drizzle. A wet misty night to follow for all but Northern Ireland. Tops of 14 to 21C north to south.

Thursday
Breezy with outbreaks of heavy rain and drizzle across Wales and southern England to clear from all but Kent and Sussex by the end of the morning. For the rest of the country it's a day of cloud, sunnier spells and showers, some heavy. These may merge into longer spells of rain across northern Scotland and north east England in the afternoon while some light rain lingers in the far south of England as well. Further showers and rain will continue into the evening and night for most places. Highs of 15 to 19C north to south.

2006-08-28T14:05:00.000-07:00

Malaria a problem for armies in Southern Africa
28.08.2006 21:43

Military forces of southern African countries now have identified a new enemy and are planning to fight -- malaria. Military representatives from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) states convened at Namibia's capital city of Windhoek on Monday to discuss malaria management in armies, the Namibian Press Agency (NAMPA) reported from Windhoek.

Major General Charles Shalumbu, Chief of Staff of the Namibia Defence Force (NDF), told the meeting that although attempts had been made in some military forces within the SADC for using prophylaxis prior and during operations, it has not been fully practiced hence the increase in malaria cases on arrival from operations. These increased the risk of import and export of malaria across the region's borders while it is a threat to national, regional and global public health and security, he said. SADC defence forces are often deployed at short notice for national and international security from usually malaria free areas to operate temporarily or on long term in malaria endemic zones.

The military may at times be the only service providing access to civilian populations and refugees to malaria control interventions in conflict zones. The high numbers of cases reinforce concerns regarding malaria prophylaxis, the estimated risk for infection and the need for prompt recognition and treatment of malaria in military personnel, the meeting was told. Shalumbu said the military needs to understand and take advantage of current knowledge in malaria control including surveillance and geographical reconnaissance before deployment, advocacy and promotion, prevention and treatment.

RSOE HAVARIA BreakNews: Test kits help clarify mysterious fevers

2006-08-28T14:04:00.000-07:00

Test kits help clarify mysterious fevers
28.08.2006 20:55

When it comes to diagnosis, the term "fever of unknown origin" (FUO) provides both a challenge and headache for a doctor trying to pinpoint just exactly what is wrong with a patient and how to treat it. In practice, the doctor usually narrows down the possible causes of the fever, administers a broad range of drugs and then follows the patient's progress. This broad approach is taken as it would be too expensive and impractical to test a patient for every conceivable cause before administering treatment. The only problem is, sometimes an FUO can turn out to be something more serious than it appears and a wrong diagnosis could lead to a fatal result.

But thanks to a new medical test kit developed by a scientist at the Chiang Mai Medical Sciences Centre, doctors can cut the number of patients treated for FUO by about one-third. Using Nested Polymerase Chain Reaction or Nested PCR, the new test kit was developed to help doctors to screen for scrub typhus, which is responsible for about 33 per cent of cases of FUO. The kit's inventor, Salukjit Chutipongwiwet, said that normally it took 10 to 14 days using a disease-culture technique in the laboratory to tell whether a patient had this infectious disease. With the new kit, the test can be conducted immediately and it takes just hours to get the result, she said. Salukjit last week won the best innovation award, conferred annually by the Department of Medical Sciences (DMS), for her invention.

Patients with scrub typhus usually seek treatment about three days after contracting the disease, and that is the perfect time for the new test to detect the strain, Salukjit said. The kit is 100-per-cent accurate, she said, adding that it was developed last year and is now being distributed for use in state laboratories and hospitals and is also being marketed domestically for private medical laboratories and facilities. Salukjit said the test kit should be the only one of its kind in the world as scrub typhus is common only in Asia and the Pacific. Western medical equipment makers, therefore, were not interested in this tropical disease. Figures from the Bureau of Epidemiology show that fever of unknown origin is the third most frequently reported illness after acute diarrhoea and malaria. Scrub typhus is transmitted to humans through the bites of mites that live on field mice and rats. The main symptoms of the disease are fever, a wound at the site of the bite, a spotted ! rash on the torso and swollen lymph glands.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-28T09:28:00.001-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for TS is 85% currently
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression 11E

2006-08-28T09:28:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 11E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wet Monday for much of Midwest, Plains

2006-08-28T07:27:00.000-07:00

Midwest
Much of the Midwest and Great Plains will be damp today. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated in the vicinity of a slow-moving front in the lower Midwest as a low pressure center trundles eastward along the boundary. Some localized small stream and urban flooding isn't out of the question in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. In the Plains, from South Dakota to Kansas (and perhaps into southern Minnesota), scattered showers and thunderstorms will billow up underneath a low pressure system aloft. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s in eastern Nebraska and Iowa to the 70s and 80s elsewhere.

Northeast
Locally heavy rain is expected to shift offshore from New England during the day today. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will dampen areas farther west and south--from Pennsylvania to Virginia--along a stalled out front. High temperatures, meanwhile, will display a rather broad range, from the 50s in parts of northern Maine to the 90s in eastern Virginia.

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will speckle much of the South today, although the Carolinas and Georgia (except for coastal areas) and southern Texas may escape much if any rainfall. It will continue to be hot and humid in the vast majority of the region with highs in the 80s and 90s. The exceptions will be in Texas where parts of the Panhandle may get stuck in the 70s, and areas in the far south boil up to over 100. Residents of southern Florida, by the way, will be keeping a close watch on Ernesto... see Hurricane Central.

West
Much of the West will be hot and dry today with critical fire weather conditions--high temperatures, low humidities--in the Intermountain region. Precipitation should be limited to scattered, or maybe only isolated, thunderstorms in the southern Rockies and eastern New Mexico. Maximum temperatures will cover a wide spectrum, ranging from the 50s in the highest Colorado Rockies to over 110 in parts of Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Readings in the 90s will reach as far north as eastern Washington and Montana.

2006-08-28T07:26:00.002-07:00

Explosion - Turkey

GLIDE CODE: EX-20060828-7376-TUR
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 14:06:39
Area: Turkey Konya Province, , ( MAP)

Description:

Seven people were killed yesterday when a parked truck's body and fuel tank exploded in the central Anatolian province of Konya. The truck, parked at a gas station, exploded and authorities were not immediately unable to ascertain why the explosion took place. First the truck's cargo, comprising lighters and sparklers, blew up, followed by an explosion in the fuel tank. Four minibuses and another truck, all parked nearby the truck, caught fire and windows at the gas station were shattered. The fire brigade managed to extinguish the fire before it reached the gas store of the station. Four people were also seriously wounded in the explosion. They were taken to a hospital in Konya for treatment. 'We don't know yet why the explosion happened. The prosecutor's office, the fire brigade and police are investigating how the fire started,' - Mahmut Tiftikçi, an official with Konya Municipality's fire department,

Number of Deads: 7 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-28T07:26:00.001-07:00

Technological Disasters - Egypt

GLIDE CODE: AC-20060828-7375-EGY
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 12:36:44
Area: Egypt , , Hadeiq al-Kubba ( MAP)

Description:

In Cairo's Hadeiq al-Kubba neighbourhood, a four-storey building also collapsed, leaving three people injured and six trapped under the rubble.

Number of Injured persons: 9 persons
Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-28T07:26:00.000-07:00

Power Outage - USA

GLIDE CODE: PW-20060828-7373-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 07:36:24
Area: USA Texas, Dallas / Fort Worth Area, ( MAP)

Description:

High winds from fast-moving storms knocked out power to about 20,000 customers in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, said a spokesman from TXU Electric Delivery. TXU's John Hardesty said the winds knocked down some power lines and it could take until mid-morning Monday to restore power. The National Weather Service says the storms helped end a streak of 19 straight days of triple-digit heat. Sunday's temperature peaked at 96 degrees.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-28T07:25:00.001-07:00

State of emergency declared in Florida
28.08.2006 05:48

Visitors were ordered to leave the Florida Keys on Sunday and Gov. Jeb Bush issued a state of emergency because of the possibility that Hurricane Ernesto could threaten the state. All travel trailers and recreational vehicles were ordered off the islands immediately. The storm was expected to move over Cuba, then bring rain and wind to southern Florida by early Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

2006-08-28T07:25:00.000-07:00

Terror Attack - Turkey

GLIDE CODE: VW-20060828-7378-TUR
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 16:13:52
Area: Turkey , , Antalya ( MAP)

Description:

One person died and five others were injured in a blast in the city centre of Antalya in southern Turkey, private broadcaster NTV said on Monday. The blast came less than 24 hours after four bombs in the coastal town of Marmaris and in Istanbul injured 27 people.

Number of Deads: 1 persons
Number of Injured persons: 5 persons

2006-08-27T19:51:00.000-07:00

Fire - USA

GLIDE CODE: FR-20060828-7370-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 04:25:28
Area: USA New York, , New York ( MAP)

Description:

A New York City firefighter who got trapped in the basement of a burning store this afternoon when the floor collapsed has died. Another firefighter is hospitalized in critical condition. Mayor Michael Bloomberg said three other injured firefighters are in serious but stable condition. Hundreds of firefighters battled the blaze in a 99-cent store in the Bronx. Witnesses saw several injured firefighters coming out. Some were treated for smoke inhalation. Fire investigators haven't determined the cause but do not think it was arson.

Number of Deads: 1 persons

2006-08-27T19:50:00.001-07:00

Landslide - Nepal

GLIDE CODE: LS-20060828-7369-NPL
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 03:48:21
Area: Nepal Khaptada, Achham, ( MAP)

Description:

More than 550 persons were missing and feared dead Sunday following a huge landslide in the Khaptada region of western Nepal, independent Kantipur Television reported.
More than 100 houses have been washed away by the landslide that hit remote mountainous villages in Achham district, around 460 kilometres west of Kathmandu. Local authorities said rescue work could not yet begin owing to heavy rain, the report quoted them as saying.They added that the villages could only be reached by helicopter and they could not fly in the bad weather conditions. Khaptada is major Hindu pilgrimage destination.

Number of Deads: 550 persons

2006-08-27T19:50:00.000-07:00

Flood - Nepal

GLIDE CODE: FL-20060828-7368-NPL
Date & Time: 2006.08.28 - 03:41:36
Area: Nepal , Rapti River, Banke és Bardiya ( MAP)

Description:

At least five persons were killed and more than 100 missing Sunday when floods ravaged low lying areas in Banke and Bardiya, officials had earlier said. The floods in the Rapti River triggered by two days of constant rains inundated many low-lying areas in the districts around 400 kilometres west of Kathmandu. A police officer in the Banke district said rescue efforts were continuing and that the army, police and Nepal Red Cross were participating. Local media reports said the floods had made thousands homeless and many people had sought safety by climbing up trees. The floods had cut off all form of communications with several villages and the fate of people there was still unknown, media reports said. The army and police had rescued at least 45 people from a village and taken them to higher ground near the Nepalese-Indian border, but had had to leave them there because of the 'fury of the floods,' Radio Nepal reported. The affected areas are located in the plains of! Nepal. Hundreds of houses had been damaged by the floods and people were fleeing their houses in search of safety, the report said. Farmers in the plains of west Nepal had been praying for the delayed rains when the flooding started. Floods also severed road links in west Nepal, reports said. The damage came after 10 members of a family were killed and four injured in a landslide caused by heavy rains in the Baitadi district, 560 kilometres west of Kathmandu, on Saturday.

Number of Deads: 15 persons

Ernesto weakens to a tropical storm

2006-08-27T13:55:00.000-07:00

Issued at: 4:35 PM EDT 8/27/06 (gateway).

Ernesto weakens to a tropical storm but still bringing torrential rains to haiti and the dominican republic,

At 5 pm, 2100 utc, a hurricane watch is issued for all of the florida keys from ocean reef to the dry tortugas. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

Additional hurricane watches may be required for portions of the florida peninsula tonight.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula of haiti from the haiti-dominican republic border westward to the southwestern tip of haiti. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the cuban provinces of guantanamo, santiago de cuba, granma, holguin, las tunas, and camaguey. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning is recommended for the south coast of the dominican republic from barahona to the dominican republic-haiti border. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for jamaica.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the cayman islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern caribbean sea, cuba, the northeastern yucatan peninsula of mexico, southern Florida, and the southeastern gulf of mexico, should monitor the progress of ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 pm edt, 2100z, the center of tropical storm ernesto was located near latitude 18.0 north, longitude 74.5 west. This position is very near the southwestern tip of haiti, about 150 miles, 240 km, west-southwest of port au prince haiti and about 160 miles, 255 km, south-southeast of guantanamo cuba.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph, 13 km/hr, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track the center will move away from southwestern haiti tonight, and be near the southern coast of eastern cuba Monday morning.

Reports from an air force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, 95 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ernesto is forecast to strengthen after it moves away from southwestern haiti and it could regain hurricane status before it reaches the south coast of eastern cuba tomorrow morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km from the center.

An air force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, 29.65 inches.

Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of haiti. Tides of 4 to 6 feet above normal along with large battering waves are expected on the southern coast of eastern cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches, are expected over haiti, the dominican republic, and portions of cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, are expected across portions of jamaica.

Repeating the 500 pm edt position, 18.0 n, 74.5 w. Movement toward, northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 60 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1004 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 pm edt.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane ERNESTO

2006-08-27T09:14:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Hurricane ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 is 65% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 117 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Jamaica
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-27T09:13:00.001-07:00

Fears Over Storm Defences
27.08.2006 09:20

A year after Hurricane Katrina devastasted New Orleans, there are fears the rebuilt defences around the city will not be strong enough to cope, with further heavy storms being forecast. Tropical storm Ernesto is gathering strength in the Caribbean and it is thought it could reach Louisiana by the end of the week.

Officials in New Orleans say they are taking all the precautions they can - but residents are already packing up and fleeing the city. In his weekly radio address on Saturday, President Bush conceded that his government had failed New Orleans during last year's storm. Bush admitted Government failed New Orleans Ernesto is threatening to become the year's first hurricane in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico, putting New Orleans and other possible targets on alert a year after Katrina ripped the southern US city apart. Warm Atlantic waters in Ernesto's path could powerfully strengthen the storm as it approaches the Gulf, the US National Hurricane Centre said on Saturday. Ernesto, the fifth tropical storm, would become the first hurricane of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. Officials say Ernesto could be near hurricane strength, with winds near 74 mph (119 kph), as it passes Jamaica and Haiti today. Next in line are the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Lou! isiana's Governor Kathleen Blanco warned the state could not rest easy with Ernesto on the way, pointing out: " "Our entire coast is on alert."

2006-08-27T09:13:00.000-07:00

Cholera outbreak denied in Beijing
27.08.2006 09:16

Beijing's health authorities announced on Sunday that there has been no outbreak of cholera in the city, refuting rumors spread by cell phone text messages. There are no cholera cases in Beijing caused by eating freshwater fish and shrimps, said Zhao Tao, a disease control official with the city's health authorities.

Aquatic products sold in Beijing are currently under scrutiny from municipal food supervision authorities and the quarantine department, Zhao said. Zhao said the city's disease control and prevention center has intensified sample checks of aquatic products in supermarkets, restaurants and other trading places. The center has detected no cholera bacteria in aquatic products sold in the city so far this year, the official added. In partnership with mobile telecom operators, the city government on Saturday sent out one million short messages to refute scares about eating freshwater fish. According to Zhao, last year the Beijing Disease Control and Prevention Center revised the cholera emergency scheme. There are now more than 300 hospitals in Beijing that provide outpatient enteropathy services, and all diarrhoea patients will be examined for traces of cholera virus.

2006-08-27T09:12:00.002-07:00

Biological Hazard - Indonesia

GLIDE CODE: BH-20060827-7360-IDN
Date & Time: 2006.08.27 - 09:13:44
Area: Indonesia West Java, Garut , ( MAP)

Description:

Indonesia's Garut district of West Java province will soon conduct poultry depopulation by culling some 2,000 fowls in order to prevent the spread of bird flu in the region. The plan to mass cull fowls was made after the discovery of several chickens which tested positive for the avian influenza virus in the villages of Cigadong and Cijambe, Antara news agency on Saturday quoted local Animal Husbandry Service Head Andi Rachmat as saying. He said that the mass culling of poultry in the district would be conducted on Sunday and Monday. The planned culling of 2,000 fowls would follow the previous ones which involved 3,528 birds, so that the total number of fowls to have been killed would reach 5,528, Andi said. He said the depopulation would be followed by vaccinations of 70,000 fowls with 70,000 doses of vaccine. Plans had been made to provide vaccine for 300,000 fowls in Garut. Scores of humans suspected of being infected with bird flu were discovered in Garut recently! . Nine cases were reported last week. Two of them, a 17-year old man identified as U and a girl identified as ASA (9) (died) were said to be positive bird flu virus carriers. Two other patients, I (5) and S (6) were said tested negative but they were still hospitalized at Hasan Sadikin Hospital in Bandung, West Java provincial capital. Four other suspects, a man initialed M (20), a women initialed EL (35), a girl R (13) and a boy S (4) have died before health official were able to take the sample of their blood. Until now a total of 62 bird flu cases have been confirmed in Indonesia and 47 of them had died, but none of the deaths was caused by having been infected with the virus by a fellow human being, officials said.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-27T09:12:00.001-07:00

Extreme Weather - USA

GLIDE CODE: ST-20060827-7359-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.27 - 09:03:56
Area: USA Colorado State, Pueblo / El Paso county, ( MAP)

Description:

Severe storms hit parts of southern Colorado Saturday, striking parts of Pueblo and El Paso counties particularly hard. In Pueblo, on 29th Street near Interstate 25, the road quickly flooded. A driver tried to cross that water, and her car sank beneath the surface. The driver became trapped inside. Bystanders quickly swam out to rescue her, and did manage to pull her to safety. The car was completely submerged. Also on Pueblo's north side, the storm shut down a King Soopers store. A few thousand customers were left without power. Pueblo West also took a beating. Flooding forced firefighters so close a portion of Purcell Boulevard. Purcell was just one of several roads that shut down throughout Pueblo County. Highway 96 east of Boone closed, as did Baxter Road between Highway 96 and Daniel Road. The Pueblo County Sheriff's Office issued a reverse 911 to about 160 residents in eastern Pueblo County, advising them to watch for rising water. Stormy weather was also the st! ory in Colorado Springs. Small hail and heavy rains caused flooding and resulted in several accidents. At least one home caught fire when it was hit by lightning. Several power outages were also reported in El Paso county. The day also saw some snow which coated the top of Pikes Peak.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-27T09:12:00.000-07:00

Landslide - Nepal

GLIDE CODE: LS-20060827-7358-NPL
Date & Time: 2006.08.27 - 09:02:12
Area: Nepal , Dasharath Chand Municipality, ( MAP)

Description:

Ten people of a family were killed when a massive landslide swept their house in Dasharath Chand Municipality–6 in the far-western district of Baitadi Friday night. According to reports, the landslide resulted after heavy rainfall in the area. Rescue Workers recovered bodies on Saturday. Three injured persons have been taken to the district hospital for treatment. Police personnel and locals were involved in rescue works, reports added.

Number of Deads: 10 persons

2006-08-27T09:11:00.000-07:00

Chemical Accident - China

GLIDE CODE: CH-20060827-7357-CHN
Date & Time: 2006.08.27 - 08:57:28
Area: China Shaanxi Province, , Hancheng ( MAP)

Description:

The water source area of Hancheng City in northwest China's Shaanxi Province, which has been under a threat of chemical pollution, is now out of danger. A local government official said Sunday that the Xuefeng Reservoir at the water source area would resume water supply for the city soon. Around 9:00 p.m. Friday, a tank truck loaded with 25 tons of liquid caustic soda fell into an upstream river of the reservoir in Hancheng partly due to slippery road caused by rains, the official said. One person in the truck was killed on the spot, and another was seriously burned. The local government had a dam built at the site where the truck fell, about five kilometers away from the reservoir, which is the source of drinking water for about 100,000 residents. Meanwhile, at least 10 tons of acetic acid and hydrochloric acid was transported from the provincial capital of Xi'an to neutralize the caustic soda that remained inside the truck and flew into the river. According to local ! environmental protection authorities, the neutralization process will not cause new pollution, and the pH value of the water in the Xuefeng Reservoir is at a normal level. Ten spare wells have been put into use after the chemical spill to ensure drinking water supply for residents in Hancheng.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-26T21:02:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 65% currently
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

TsunamiWatcherMessage

2006-08-26T17:06:00.000-07:00

SEAK71 PAAQ 262346
EQIAKX

TO - TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM PARTICIPANTS IN
ALASKA/BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON/CALIFORNIA
FROM - WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
SUBJECT - INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED 08/26/2006 AT 2346 UTC

...THIS IS AN INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVALUATION
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH A MAGNITUDE SUCH THAT A TSUNAMI
IS NOT EXPECTED. IN COASTAL AREAS OF INTENSE SHAKING LOCALLY
GENERATED TSUNAMIS CAN BE TRIGGERED BY UNDERWATER LANDSLIDES.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WC/ATWC MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 5.9
TIME - 1541 ADT 08/26/2006
1641 PDT 08/26/2006
2341 UTC 08/26/2006
LOCATION - 50.9N 179.4W
80 MILES SE OF AMCHITKA ALASKA
135 MILES SW OF ADAK ALASKA
DEPTH - 29 MILES

THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.
FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.
$$

2006-08-26T16:17:00.001-07:00

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS
SEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS
295/5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.

CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM
TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING
FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

2006-08-26T16:17:00.000-07:00

5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion August 27-31
540 PM EDT Sat. August 26, 2006

Short Term

An upper level low and its associated cold pool of air has caused snow levels to lower to 7500 feet in the central Rockies and snow could be possible in the Absarkoka and Wind River Mountains. Mid-level energy evident on water vapor imagery will cause thunderstorms in the Mississippi Delta. A frontal boundary extending from the southern Plains into the mid-Atlantic region is forecast to remain in place through Monday. Energy at the mid-levels of the atmosphere is expected to ride along the boundary and will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms. To the south, low-level shear from a low-level circulation off the Southeast coast will enhance activity during maximum daytime heating.

Long Range

The frontal boundary stretching from the Northeast to North Texas will still cause showers and thunderstorms Monday. Several waves of low pressure will ride along the front enhancing the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. The front pushing through the southern Plains will cause the heat to ease across the region. In the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms will be a daily occurrence each afternoon and evening hours. Monsoonal moisture will set off thunderstorms in New Mexico and West Texas with heavy downpours once again a threat. By Tuesday, the front in the East will sink farther south into the mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley. High pressure will keep the Midwest dry. Ernesto will move into the southern Gulf, possibly as a hurricane.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-26T11:44:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Haiti
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 30% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-26T11:43:00.001-07:00

Biological Hazard - Vietnam

GLIDE CODE: BH-20060826-7349-VNM
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 10:30:09
Area: Vietnam , Mekong Delta, Ben Tre ( MAP)

Description:

Bird flu has been detected in Vietnamese poultry for the second time this month, igniting fears of a possible resurgence of the H5N1 virus in the country that has been touted for beating it back, officials said Saturday. The virus was found in one duck in the southern Mekong Delta province of Ben Tre, Mai Van Hiep, director of the provincial animal health bureau said, adding it was among eight samples taken from a farm of 45 ducks in Thanh Phu town. All the ducks, none of which showed any sign of bird flu symptoms, were destroyed Saturday morning after the test result came back two days ago, Hiep said. The farm and surrounding areas were disinfected, he added. Earlier this month, the bird flu virus was also detected in two ducks and two geese in random testing in Thanh Phu town in the same province. Hiep said more than 300 samples of poultry were taken for testing so far this year, and five tested positive for bird flu. "The infected ducks are still healthy,'' Hiep sai! d. "It was a big problem for us to control the virus from spreading.'' The government imposed a ban on hatching and raising water fowl, which can carry the virus without showing symptoms. However, the ban was largely ignored by farmers. There is an estimated 50 million to 70 million water fowl in the country.

Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-26T11:43:00.000-07:00

Chemical Accident - USA

GLIDE CODE: CH-20060826-7348-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 09:14:27
Area: USA Delaware, , Wilmington ( MAP)

Description:

An early evening chemical spill today prompted the evacuation of some homes and businesses near Reichhold Chemical, a latex manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Cheswold. Witnesses initially reported a fog hovering on the ground inside the plant and then a foul odor. Pam Chase said she dropped a friend off at the Dover Mall around 7:30 p.m. and noticed a stench in the air. A temporary employee of Square One Electric, near Reichhold, Chase said she was at work Friday morning and “everything was fine.” From West Denneys Road along the north edge of Dover, Chase said she could see a “mist across the ground” and a “steam or fog along the tracks.” Police and emergency officials began evacuating the area around the company’s site, 144 Fork Branch Road, around 6:30 p.m., said Tim Colendaniel of the Cheswold Volunteer Fire Company. There were no immediate reports of injuries.

State police said the spill originated from a rail car thought to be carrying styrene, which is classified as a possible human carcinogen by the Environmental Protection Agency. Styrene is primarily a synthetic chemical that is used extensively in the manufacture of plastics, rubber, and resins. Emergency crews closed U.S. 13 and access roads near Delaware Technical and Community College’s Terry campus, on the outskirts of Dover, said State Police Cpl. Jeff Whitmarsh. Residents within a five-mile radius of Reichhold were told to either stay indoors or evacuate. A temporary shelter was set up at Dover High School. Reports about the danger, though, didn’t reach some residents until hours after the spill. At a Valero gasoline station near U.S. 13 and Denneys Road, about a mile away from the plant, a state trooper jumped out of his vehicle around 8 p.m. and chased away a few customers shouting: “If you can smell that, you need to evacuate.” At the nearby ! Maple Glen development, just off Denneys, the smell hung heavy in the air as resident Norman Hall checked his mailbox at dusk. No, he said, he hadn’t heard a thing about the spill. And then he sniffed.

2006-08-26T11:42:00.001-07:00

13 plague cases reported in US
26.08.2006 07:32

Thirteen cases of plague, including two deaths, have been reported in the western United States this year, the highest number of cases in 12 years, health officials said. Seven cases were reported in New Mexico, three in Colorado, two in California and one in Texas, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

Two New Mexicans died - a 54-year-old woman who grew ill in May and a 43-year-old woman who became sick in July. On average, about seven people a year are diagnosed with plague, CDC officials said. Fourteen cases were reported in 1994. It is treatable with antibiotics, but health officials stress the importance of prompt diagnosis to reduce the fatality rate. Plague is transmitted through the bites of infected fleas, but people also can get it by direct contact with infected rodents, wildlife and pets. Most people become ill one to six days after being infected. The increase probably stems from human encroachment into areas where infected rodents live, said Hannah Gould, a CDC epidemiologist who investigated some of the cases. Plague takes three forms - bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. A common symptom of bubonic plague is painful swollen lymph nodes in the groin, armpit or neck. Other symptoms include fever, chills, and sometimes headache, vomiting, and diarrhea. Septicem! ic plague can involve fever, chills, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and abdominal pain. Eight of the cases this year were bubonic and the other five were septicemic. Most cases usually occur in May through September, Gould said.

2006-08-26T11:42:00.000-07:00

Biological Hazard - USA

GLIDE CODE: BH-20060826-7345-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 06:38:35
Area: USA Florida, Pinellas / Collier County, Seminole ( MAP)

Description:

According to the Aug. 25 report from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, fish kills and respiratory irritation are possible between southern Pinellas County and northern Collier County. Very low concentrations of red tide were found in samples taken from the Skyway pier on Aug. 21 and 22. Karenia brevis, the Florida red tide organism, was detected this week at medium to high concentrations alongshore from Anna Maria Island (Manatee County) to Captiva Pass (Lee County), the report said. Medium concentrations of K. brevis, were detected as far south as the Naples Pier earlier in the week but had dropped to very low in samples collected on August 24. Samples collected 1 to 3 miles offshore between New Pass (Sarasota County) and Gasparilla Pass (Charlotte County) contained K. brevis concentrations ranging from low to high. An extensive bloom of the marine cyanobacteria Trichodesmium, remains in coastal waters between Sarasota and Lee counties and conti! nues to co-occur with the K. brevis, bloom.

2006-08-26T11:41:00.002-07:00

Terror Attack - Turkey

GLIDE CODE: VW-20060826-7344-TUR
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 06:35:47
Area: Turkey , , Adana ( MAP)

Description:

Four people were injured in two small bomb explosions in the southern Turkey city of Adana Friday. The first bomb exploded at around 4:30 p.m. (1330 GMT) outside a bank in the busy Kucuksaat area in the centre of the city, while the second exploded five minutes later near the local offices of the Human Rights Association. Dogan reported that a number of businesses had their windows shattered in the blast and that the four injured people were admitted to local hospitals. The condition of the injured was not reported. No group claimed immediate responsibility for the blasts.

Number of Injured persons: 4 persons
Damage level: Moderate

2006-08-26T11:41:00.001-07:00

Tornado - USA

GLIDE CODE: TO-20060826-7343-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 06:32:16
Area: USA New York State, Rhode Island, Massapequa ( MAP)

Description:

The winds swirled faster and faster. Rain fell in sheets. Quarter-sized hail pelted the windows. The power went out. Then Jose Martinez's dog began to panic, running around and barking -- and Martinez really started to worry. He looked out his kitchen window, and along with dozens of families in East Massapequa and Amityville just before noon Friday, got a glimpse of an uncommon weather event on Long Island -- a bona fide tornado. "You know in the old days when you went through a car wash? It looked like that," he said. Confirmation of the meteorological event came Friday afternoon when the National Weather Service said a tornado had, indeed, hit at 11:57 a.m. in an area near County Line Road, going west to east from Clocks Boulevard to Route 110. The winds were higher than 70 mph.

2006-08-26T11:41:00.000-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Fiji

GLIDE CODE: EP-20060826-7342-FJI
Date & Time: 2006.08.26 - 06:28:48
Area: Fiji , Northern regio, ( MAP)

Description:

Fiji’s Northern division has seen an increase in typhoid especially in villages and settlements. In a statement the Health Ministry said a total of 113 cases were treated in the division since the beginning of this year. In 2005, 127 cases were reported in the North compared to 11 each in the previous two years. No typhoid-related death has been reported in the division for the past 22 years. The Ministry confirmed that typhoid fever is caused by bacteria usually transferred by flies on to food, which people then consume. The ministry said allowing the disease to continue to circulate would affect the quality of village life, workforce productivity, and vital industries such as tourism. It said typhoid surveillance, case investigation, and case management capacity was being strengthened in the Northern Division. The disease occurs worldwide – the annual incidence estimated about 17 million cases and approximately 600,000 deaths. The Health Ministry believes! the incidence of typhoid appears to have increased after Cyclone Ami in 2003.

UK & Ireland Summary Sat Aug 26

2006-08-26T11:39:00.000-07:00

WeatherOnline
Thu 24 Aug 18:07
Sunny in east
Showers in west Saturday

Friday
Patchy rain is forecast across south west England in the morning with a few showers for the north of Scotland. Elsewhere a fine morning with sunny spells and some early morning fog clearing. In the afternoon rain spreads into Wales and Northern Ireland with showers developing across much of Scotland. For England it stays fine, dry and mostly sunny. Expect highs of 18 to 21C north to south.

Friday Night
A dry evening to come across north east England and showers should fade from Scotland. Rain across Northern Ireland and Wales will spill into southern England. Overnight most places will be dry though a few spots of light rain may linger in the far south of England and Wales. Lows of 6 to 12C.

Saturday
Scattered showers are expected across south west England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. Damp today with rain for western Sco tland. The remainder of England should be dry with sunnier spells. Some rain and showers will fall across Scotland and northern England tonight, staying dry in the south. Highs of 17 to 21C.

Sunday
Showers this morning across Northern Ireland and Scotland will become heavy with a risk of thunder in the afternoon. For England and Wales it's mainly dry and fine with sunny spells and occasional cloud though one or two showers may affect East Anglia in the afternoon. Rain in the north this evening spreads to all but the far south of England during the n ight. Highs of 17 to 21C.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERNESTO

2006-08-25T21:08:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-25T17:14:00.001-07:00

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5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion August 26-31
735 PM EDT Fri. August 25, 2006

Models are in good agreement with upper pattern depicting a trough off the West coast, a ridge in the Plains and a trough over eastern Canada.

Short Term

An upper low is forecast to move through the Rockies and will cause scattered rain and storms. To the south, a trough pushing through the central Rockies will interrupt the monsoonal moisture acros the Southwest. A trailing froint pushing through the southern Plains is expected to stall and extend from the Front Range of the Rockies and into the Midwest. An easterly upslope flow behind the froint will cause scattered rain throiugh Sunday. Energy moving into the Great Lakes on Sunday will push a front east and will interact with a boundary extending from the Great Lakes and the mid-Atlantic. As the front across the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic region lifts north, moisture will overrun the boundary and cause scattered showers and storms across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Saturday and Sunday. Sea breeze boundaries will interact with a front across the South and Southeast and will cause showers ands storms along the gulf coast and Florida.

Long Term

High pressure will cover much of the West and the Plains through Thursday. A trough will push into the Northwest late Tuesday and into the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Energy riding along a boundary extending from the Plains into the Northeast will continue the threat of showers and storms from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-25T17:14:00.000-07:00

Severe Weather Forecast Discussion August 26
745 PM EDT Fri. August 24, 2005

Deep moisture in the central and southern Plains will interact with a boundary across the region with cause showers and storms acros the region. Low-level lapse rates will cause conditions favorable for strong to severe storms.

A trough in the Rockies will push northeast through the northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley. Forcing and ascent associated with this system along with favorable shear will initiate strong to severe storms.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-25T16:53:00.000-07:00

5-Day Weather Forecast Discussion August 26-31
735 PM EDT Fri. August 25, 2006

Models are in good agreemenbt wikthe upper pattern depicting a trough off the West coast, a ridge in the Plains and a trough over eastern Canada.

Short Term

An upper low is foreacst to move through the the Rockies and will cause scattered raion and storms. To the south, a troiugh puahing through the central Rockies will interupt the monsoonal moisture acros sthe Southwest. A trailing froint pushing through the southern Plains is expected to stall and extend from the Front Range of the Rockies and into the Midwest. An easterly upslope flow behind the froint will cause scattered rain throiugh Sunday. Energy moving into the Great Lakes on Sunday will push a front east and will interact with a boundary extending from the Great Lakes and the mid-Atlantic. As the front across the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic region lifts north, moisture will overrun the boundary and cause scattered showers and storms across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Saturday and Sunday. Sea breeze boundariues wuilkl intercat with a fronmt across the South and Southeast and will cause showeers ands storms along the gulf coast and Florida.

Long Term

High pressure will cover much of the West and the Plains through Tursday. A trough will poush into the Northwest late Tuesdayt and into the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Energy riding along a boundat extending from the Plains into the Northeast will cointinue the threat of showers and storms from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

James Munley, Jr.,
Http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

2006-08-25T14:35:00.000-07:00

Fire - Russia

GLIDE CODE: FR-20060825-7341-RUS
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 21:00:23
Area: Russia Sankt-Peterburg, Troitsky (Trinity) Cathedral, Saint Petersburg ( MAP)

Description:

A fire gutted a 19th century cathedral in the heart of Russia's second city on Friday, destroying its famous azure domes which attract thousands of tourists every year. As flames leapt from the main dome of the Troitsky (Trinity) Cathedral -- one of the largest wooden domes in Europe -- passers-by helped to rescue priceless artifacts from its renowned art and religious icon collection. "The fire services don't have long enough ladders to reach the top of the dome. They have been aiming their water guns at the middle section," Reuters photographer Alexander Demyanchuk said by telephone from outside the cathedral. The cathedral had been covered by wooden scaffolding during reconstruction work when the fire started. "The main dome has been destroyed but we could not stop the fire because it was so high and now other domes are in flames," said a spokesman for Russia's emergencies ministry.. Emergency services said there had been no casualties. The Troitsky Cathedral, built! overlooking one of central St Petersburg's canals, is big enough to hold 3,000 worshippers and also housed the military uniforms of Russian 19th century tsars.

Damage level: Large

2006-08-25T14:34:00.001-07:00

Explosion - India

GLIDE CODE: EX-20060825-7338-IND
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 20:27:36
Area: India Uttar Pradesh state, , Muzaffarnagar ( MAP)

Description:

At least seven children were killed and 10 others injured in an explosion at an illegal fireworks factory in India's northern Uttar Pradesh state, news reports said Friday. Police said the blast took place in the Muzaffarnagar district, located 130 kilometres north-east of New Delhi, on Thursday night when the workers, a majority of them children. While four children succumbed to burn injuries at a hospital, charred bodies of three other children were found at the scene, other news outlets reported. Police said the fire was caused by a short-circuit, which triggered several explosions as the crackers and fireworks caught fire and ripped open the roof of the house. Local authorities have ordered an inquiry into the matter as more than 50 children were working in the factory. Many children are employed in such fire-works units as their small hands can quickly fill explosive in firecrackers.

Number of Deads: 7 persons
Number of Injured persons: 10 persons

2006-08-25T14:34:00.000-07:00

Epidemic Hazard - Dominican Republic

GLIDE CODE: EP-20060825-7337-DOM
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 20:25:38
Area: Dominican Republic , , ( MAP)

Description:

The Dominican Republic's Secretary of State for Public Health Bautista Rojas Gomez said on Wednesday that at least 17 people have died of hemorrhagic dengue fever so far this year, according to reports from Santo Domingo. Rojas told Dominican Television that he is worried about the rising number of hemorrhagic dengue fever cases, and many of the deaths could have been avoided, but added that at least the mortality rate has reduced from 2005. Rojas said that every five years, a massive outbreak of the mosquito-spread fever claimed many people's lives. This year, the epidemic has affected the National District, Santo Domingo province, San Cristobal, San Francisco de Macoris and Moca. In 2005, the Dominican Republic reported 248 cases of dengue fever, 82 of which were hemorrhagic dengue. This year, 130 cases of normal dengue fever, and 69 cases of the hemorrhagic one have been recorded. Rojas urged doctors to follow government rules to battle the illness, but a television! program criticized the government for failing to fumigate the breeding grounds of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, which spreads dengue fever and yellow fever. The normal dengue fever is a flu-like illness spread by the bite of infected Aedes mosquito. Its symptoms includes high fever, rashes, severe headache, nausea, vomiting, appetite loss and joint pain. Hemorrhagic dengue fever, however, is more severe and often fatal. It is a complicated strain of dengue fever, which results in massive internal bleeding, and hits infants and children the most. The mosquito can be eliminated by applying certain pesticides to the bushes it inhabits, and the waters where it reproduces.

Number of Deads: 17 persons

2006-08-25T14:00:00.000-07:00

Extreme Weather - Russia

GLIDE CODE: ST-20060825-7333-RUS
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 12:32:50
Area: Russia North Caucasus, Stavropol Territory, ( MAP)

Description:

A woman was killed and 14 people hurt in a hailstorm and downpour in southern Russia, local emergencies services said Friday. The hailstorm hit the Stavropol Territory, near the North Caucasus, Thursday night, with hail reaching 2 cm (0.78 inches) in diameter, the services said. "Electricity transmission lines were damaged, killing a 39-year-old woman, and 14 people have asked for medical help," the emergencies services said. "Roofs and windows were damaged in 1,675 houses." Total damage is being determined.Local police said earlier that 79 people had asked for medical aid after the hail struck the area.

Number of Deads: 1 persons

2006-08-25T13:59:00.001-07:00

Torrens Flood - Afghanistan

GLIDE CODE: FF-20060825-7332-AFG
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 12:28:05
Area: Afghanistan Nangarhar province, Kout district, ( MAP)

Description:

At least 11 people are missing after their villages were struck by floods in eastern Nangarhar province on Thursday, local officials confirm. Following torrential rains, flash floods ravaged Kout district some 70 km southeast of Jalalabad, provincial capital of Nangarhar, Mohammad Hashim Ghamsharek, head of Nangarhar's information and culture department. "Hundreds of families have been affected and need urgent assistance," Ghamsharek stated. But according to Nangarhar's department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (RRD) on Friday, a team has already been dispatched to the flood-affected area to assess the damage. The region has witnessed a barrage of recent flooding due to heavy rains.

Number of Injured persons: 11 persons

2006-08-25T13:59:00.000-07:00

Biological Hazard - Botswana

GLIDE CODE: BH-20060825-7331-BWA
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 12:07:42
Area: Botswana Chobe area, , ( MAP)

Description:

Nine wild animals have died since an anthrax outbreak was reported in the Chobe area last week. Department of Wildlife and National Parks officials told a heads of department meeting in Kasane that samples taken from the carcasses of two elephants for analysis proved positive. Principal Wildlife Officer Lucas Rutina said elephants, zebras and buffaloes were found dead last week. Rutina said the mortality rate was likely to rise as the disease was expected to spread before the rainy season. District Wildlife Coordinator Goitseone Lebonetse said his office was taking steps such as proper disposal of carcasses, found at Ihaha in the Chobe National Park and Muchenje in the west of the Chobe enclave, to control its spread. Lebonetse said the department had asked for a helicopter to help them carry out further investigations in affected areas and were embarking on public education campaigns. We intend to intensify our public awareness programme and warn people to desi! st from criminal activities as some might be tempted to dig up elephant carcasses for their tusks.

It was an offence to be found in possession of ivory without authority, he warned. Also as a means of containing the disease, vehicles and people living in the affected areas would be disinfected. He urged the community to assist by reporting all dead animals in the Chobe region to the nearest wildlife office and advised them not to eat, touch or collect any product from an animal found dead in the region. The first outbreak was in September 2004 and by December, a total of 848 mortalities were recorded, with buffaloes at 85 per cent and nine per cent for elephants. A lion, warthog and a honey badger were also recorded in that years outbreak. Anthrax is a bacterial disease caused by the sore forming bacillius anthracis. It is primarily a disease for herbivores but humans can be infected by anthrax if they come into contact with the infected animal, carcass or material.

Damage level: Heavy

2006-08-25T08:45:00.000-07:00

Climate Changes Increase Risk Of Plague
25.08.2006 12:10

Climate changes can lead to more cases of plague. Warmer springs and moister summers can create conditions that will increase the prevalence of the plague bacterium Yersina pestis in great gerbils in Central Asia. These are the facts of a scientific article published in this week's edition of the American scientific journal PNAS, by Nils C. Stenseth, Professor of Biology at the University of Oslo.

"A temperature increase of one degree Celsius in spring may lead to a 50 percent increase in the prevalence of the plague bacterium," he stated to Uniforum, the University of Oslo's own news bulletin. Climate changes cannot lead to any new Black Death, but it is quite clear that a small increase in temperature may create more cases of bubonic plague than we have today,” said Professor Stenseth, who heads the international top-notch Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES) at the University of Oslo. Using field data from a national surveillance programme which monitored the stock of gerbils in Kazakhstan from 1949-1995, and using new statistical techniques, Stenseth and his team found a clear connection between the prevalence of the bacterium Yersina pestis in gerbils and climate variations.

"Samples from the annual rings of trees in Kazakhstan revealed that when the Black Death broke out there in the 14th century, the springs were warm and the summers were wet. Conditions were the same at the onset of the plague of the 1800's in the same region," he explained. Stenseth obtained these figures from the Swiss researcher Jan Esper, one of the co-authors of the article. He is pleased that the researchers were given access to data from the health authorities' surveillance programme in Kazakhstan. After Kazakhstan initiated this surveillance programme in 1949, the cases of plague here decreased from over 100 cases a year to a few cases a year. In the past Stenseth and his colleagues have been close to finding out why the prevalence of the bacterium varies from year to year.

"In an article we wrote on this bacterium in Science in 2004, I had a feeling that there was a part of the variation which we couldn't explain adequately. But we could have explained it, had we included climate as a cause of variation in the prevalence of this bacteria," Stenseth said to Uniforum. Hence, one of the candidates of co-author Noelle I. Samia from the University of Iowa was given the task of running all the data of the surveillance programme through an advanced statistical analysis. "The results of this work enabled us to write this article and conclude that climate changes have affected the prevalence of the bacterium which causes plague," Stenseth said. He was not sure what the conclusions would be after the investigations were finished.

"In the US, researchers have studied infectious diseases that are passed on among humans, indicating a similar connection between the prevalence of bacteria and climate changes, but this is the first time anyone has found a clear connection between the prevalence of the plague bacteria carried by gerbils and climate change," he stated. "It was precisely in this area that the genetic and climatic conditions which brought on the Black Death and the Asian flu, emerged", he said.

It is the prevalence of the bacterium Yersina pestis which has been the subject of study for Nils Chr. Stenseth and his colleagues from the Universities of Norway, Kazakhstan, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium, UK and the US. This bacterium lives in gerbils in the semideserts and steppes of Central Asia, and it is passed from gerbils to other animals and humans through flea bites. The gerbils themselves are not infected by the plague bacterium, they merely serve as hosts. "In central Asia people can also catch the plague through infected camel meat, as camels often lay in places with gerbil burrows," Stenseth explained.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression AL05

2006-08-24T21:14:00.000-07:00

Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2006 3:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL05 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Venezuela
probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

2006-08-24T21:13:00.001-07:00

Power Outage - USA

GLIDE CODE: PW-20060825-7326-USA
Date & Time: 2006.08.25 - 05:52:03
Area: USA Illinois, , Rockford ( MAP)

Description:

Some people are without power after thunderstorms rumbled through the Stateline area early common Thursday morning. Commonwealth Edison reports less than 300 people without power right now in North Central Illinois. At the height of the storm--about 1,000 lost power. The Chicago suburbs were hardest hit with over 25,000 people losing electricity. Widely scattered power outages, trees down and some flooding in Rock County Thursday morning. Golf ball sized hail reported in Footville, Wisconsin. A number of trees and limbs reported down in southern Wisconsin, eastern Winnebago County and Boone County.