TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JOHN

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2006 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOHN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/