TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane ERNESTO

Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2006 15:00 GMT

Hurricane ERNESTO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 is 65% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 35% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 117 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Bahamas
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Jamaica
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 to above 30% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/