TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS. COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY
AND PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG
84W/85W S OF 23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE WAVE WILL
REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER THAT AREA.


...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N21W 5N35W 6N43W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 18W-29W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40/50 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-39W.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO
LEON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WEST
OF 90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS IS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF
2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N81W ACROSS TAMPA BAY
TO 24N85W. HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA WSW TO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE N GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW...CLOUD LINES WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS MOST THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA IS ALSO AFFECTING THE
W ATLC WEST OF 78W. A RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
FROM 70W-78W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF 75W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NE/SW FROM
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N62 TO PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG
52W/53W. AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 21N32W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD ALONG 32W COVERS THE E ATLC BETWEEN 25W-40W.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS IN
CONTROL OF MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

$$
GR